A Stitch in Haste

To review: New York, the worst governed state in the Union, is essentially a triumvirate. The legislative agenda is under the plenary control of three politicians: the governor, the Assembly speaker and the Senate majority leader. No bill can come to a floor vote without both chambers' leaders authorizing it. Every other state legislator, no matter how senior, is a de facto permanent backbencher. Legislative votes are strictly an afterthought, implementing the back-room deals the three power-brokers make among themselves.

This disgraceful concentration of power has been the principal reason that same-sex marriage through legislative means has been impossible in New York. The Senate majority leader, Republican Joseph Bruno, has unilaterally blocked gay marriage from reaching the Senate floor -- where it could conceivably have passed, despite the chamber having a (slim 32-30) Republican majority.

So much for that roadblock.

Joseph L. Bruno, the Senate majority leader and New York State's highest-ranking Republican, said Monday evening that he would not seek re-election in November, after a 32-year career in the Senate.
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A key question for Senate Republicans will be whether several other older members will stay on. Mr. Bruno had persuaded them to stand for re-election in recent years and it was not clear if, given his departure, other senior senators in their late 70s and 80s would follow.

"His resignation, I think, will have an effect on their ability to hold on to their majority," said Assemblyman Michael Benjamin, a Democrat from the South Bronx. "He was the center. And when the center falls, everything falls apart."

Recall that governor David Paterson supports gay marriage (to say the least). Assembly speaker Sheldon Silver, meanwhile, has been amenable to allowing a vote in the past.

So it comes down to this: The Republicans, sans Bruno, will either hold the State Senate or they will not. If they don't, then it would take a betrayal of Clintonian proportions for gay marriage not to be legislatively enacted.

If the Republicans do somehow keep control of the Senate, then it will still have a new, weak leader who will likely have little choice but to barter away his "agenda veto" on the matter in exchange for some other issue of greater importance to his constituents.

New York Republican voters are not Alabama or Utah Republican voters. And their elected representatives know this all too well (Remember: Rudy Giuliani and George Pataki are Republicans -- as befuddling as that may be to Republicans in the rest of the country.) The logjam in Albany was all about Bruno. And he's leaving.

It is now just a matter of time -- and not a long time at that.