"I've Got the Same Combination on My Luggage!"
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As with all addictions, the first step to combating compulsive gambling is admitting you have a problem:
Why say (assuming you know even the first thing about probability and statistics) that the odds are "approximately 10,000-to-1"? Why not say that the odds are "exactly 9,999-to-1"?
And how about observing that, if one number is picked each day, then you would only expect a given four-digit number to come up once every 27.4 years? So, for a particular number such as 0-0-0-0 to have never come up in 16 years is not exactly an anomaly.
And are there really people out there who think that 0-0-0-0 is somehow less likely than, say, 1-2-3-4 or 2-4-6-8 or 7-9-1-4?
More to the point, why would the bureaucrats who run Virginia's lottery allow a single number to be played enough times to cost the lottery so much money if it comes up? I know for a fact that New York State sets a maximum number of entries for a particular number (e.g., they sold out "411" when the Iranian hostages were released in 1980 after 411 days of captivity). The odds are (no pun intended) that people denied 0-0-0-0 would pick another number, so there's no real danger of lost revenues.
This doesn't quite rise to the level of New York's off-track-betting managing to lose money running a parimutuel horse race monopoly. But it comes close enough to be mockworthy.
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For those unfamiliar with the title of this post:
The Virginia Lottery's "Pick 4" drawing on Thursday night came up 0-0-0-0. Because "quadruple numbers" are common plays, lottery spokesman John Hagerty said Virginia Lottery paid out $3.27 million in winnings on a "Pick 4" drawing that had sold about $280,000 worth of tickets.Angels and mathematicians of grace defend us!
An estimated 650 people played 0-0-0-0 in last night's "Pick 4" game.
Hagerty said this marks the first time the 0-0-0-0 numbers have come up since the "Pick 4" game was began in 1991. The last "quadruple numbers" to come up was 1-1-1-1 on Jan. 15, 2007.
The odds of any specific four-digit combination coming up in the drawing are approximately 10,000-to-1.
Why say (assuming you know even the first thing about probability and statistics) that the odds are "approximately 10,000-to-1"? Why not say that the odds are "exactly 9,999-to-1"?
And how about observing that, if one number is picked each day, then you would only expect a given four-digit number to come up once every 27.4 years? So, for a particular number such as 0-0-0-0 to have never come up in 16 years is not exactly an anomaly.
And are there really people out there who think that 0-0-0-0 is somehow less likely than, say, 1-2-3-4 or 2-4-6-8 or 7-9-1-4?
More to the point, why would the bureaucrats who run Virginia's lottery allow a single number to be played enough times to cost the lottery so much money if it comes up? I know for a fact that New York State sets a maximum number of entries for a particular number (e.g., they sold out "411" when the Iranian hostages were released in 1980 after 411 days of captivity). The odds are (no pun intended) that people denied 0-0-0-0 would pick another number, so there's no real danger of lost revenues.
This doesn't quite rise to the level of New York's off-track-betting managing to lose money running a parimutuel horse race monopoly. But it comes close enough to be mockworthy.
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For those unfamiliar with the title of this post:
Related Posts (on one page):
- "I've Got the Same Combination on My Luggage!"
- Stamp Prices Rise Again (But Are Still Too Low)
- On Lotteries
Posted by Kip on
26 January 2008
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