What's the Magic Number?
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We keep hearing that Democrats must win a net of six seats to gain control of the Senate. We also keep hearing that this is an unlikely occurrence, especially given that not every Democratic seat is safe (e.g., New Jersey stub-senator Bob Menendez).
But recently I've been wondering -- do the Democrats really need to win six seats? I think they only need to win three.
The problem (if you're a Republican) with a 52-48 majority is that three of those 52 Republicans would (most likely) be New England senators Lincoln Chafee, Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe, who are barely Republicans at all and who are hardly panderers to the Red State Rednecks. If those three "moderate" (i.e., liberal) senators form a block, then they can essentially veto anything the Republicans try. The radical right's agenda could be stopped dead in its tracks.
Meanwhile, any erosion of the Republican majority, even one seat, makes the filibuster more viable as a check against the Republicans. And even a 51-49 majority, let alone a 50-50 split, would be an ongoing headache for the Republican leadership, who would literally have to worry about Senators calling in sick, not to mention Dick Cheney, who might find himself chained to Capitol Hill should his tie-breaking vote be needed.
Any thoughts?
But recently I've been wondering -- do the Democrats really need to win six seats? I think they only need to win three.
The problem (if you're a Republican) with a 52-48 majority is that three of those 52 Republicans would (most likely) be New England senators Lincoln Chafee, Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe, who are barely Republicans at all and who are hardly panderers to the Red State Rednecks. If those three "moderate" (i.e., liberal) senators form a block, then they can essentially veto anything the Republicans try. The radical right's agenda could be stopped dead in its tracks.
Meanwhile, any erosion of the Republican majority, even one seat, makes the filibuster more viable as a check against the Republicans. And even a 51-49 majority, let alone a 50-50 split, would be an ongoing headache for the Republican leadership, who would literally have to worry about Senators calling in sick, not to mention Dick Cheney, who might find himself chained to Capitol Hill should his tie-breaking vote be needed.
Any thoughts?
Posted by Kip on
3 October 2006
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