Christmas and the Broken Window Fallacy
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Bill O'Reilly, the staunch defender of all things redneck ... the rank commercialization of ... the True Meaning of Christmas, now claims that Christmas is an economic necessity:
Specifically, this is a variation of the Broken Window Fallacy.
It is true that without Christmas (in both its religious and secular applications), American society would be worse off, in terms of non-economic utility, since we would not have had something that a large segment of the population likes, for one reason or another. Less to enjoy means less utility means worse off.
But that is a far cry from the claim that there would necessarily be an economic impact if there were no (commercialized) Christmas.
If we didn't save for Christmas, then we would in all likelihood save for something else -- birthdays and anniversaries and so on. If we didn't spend on Christmas, then we would in all likelihood spend on something else -- birthdays and anniversaries and so on. Or maybe we would just spend more on a regular basis evenly throughout the year.
In fact, one might argue that it would be better for business generally, and retailing specifically, if consumption weren't so concentrated into a two- or three-week period. Firms could hire more year-round, full-time employees rather than seasonal temps. They could balance out their manufacturing and warehousing capacity, since they would not need to "meet the Christmas rush." And of course there would be the efficiency of reduced menu costs (i.e., no Christmas displays to put up and take down each holiday season).
I am of course not saying scrapping Christmas would be good for the economy. I'm saying the net economic impact would be unpredictable, and something close to a wash.
Hat tip to PurpleScarf.
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As a footnote, am I the only one who finds it utterly astounding that the "radical Christmas defenders" like O'Reilly are fighting to preserve the commercialization of Christmas by lamenting the "Happy Holidays" alternative in stores? If I were a Christian devoted to the True Meaning of Christmas, then I'd probably prefer that stores use "Happy Holidays" rather than "Merry Christmas."
Render unto Wal-Mart that which is Wal-Mart's, and render unto Jesus that which is Jesus'.
If I were a Christian...
Every company in America should be on its knees thanking Jesus for being born. Without Christmas, most American businesses would be far less profitable; more than enough reason for businesses to be screaming Merry Christmas.This is, of course, utter nonsense.
Specifically, this is a variation of the Broken Window Fallacy.
It is true that without Christmas (in both its religious and secular applications), American society would be worse off, in terms of non-economic utility, since we would not have had something that a large segment of the population likes, for one reason or another. Less to enjoy means less utility means worse off.
But that is a far cry from the claim that there would necessarily be an economic impact if there were no (commercialized) Christmas.
If we didn't save for Christmas, then we would in all likelihood save for something else -- birthdays and anniversaries and so on. If we didn't spend on Christmas, then we would in all likelihood spend on something else -- birthdays and anniversaries and so on. Or maybe we would just spend more on a regular basis evenly throughout the year.
In fact, one might argue that it would be better for business generally, and retailing specifically, if consumption weren't so concentrated into a two- or three-week period. Firms could hire more year-round, full-time employees rather than seasonal temps. They could balance out their manufacturing and warehousing capacity, since they would not need to "meet the Christmas rush." And of course there would be the efficiency of reduced menu costs (i.e., no Christmas displays to put up and take down each holiday season).
I am of course not saying scrapping Christmas would be good for the economy. I'm saying the net economic impact would be unpredictable, and something close to a wash.
Hat tip to PurpleScarf.
---
As a footnote, am I the only one who finds it utterly astounding that the "radical Christmas defenders" like O'Reilly are fighting to preserve the commercialization of Christmas by lamenting the "Happy Holidays" alternative in stores? If I were a Christian devoted to the True Meaning of Christmas, then I'd probably prefer that stores use "Happy Holidays" rather than "Merry Christmas."
Render unto Wal-Mart that which is Wal-Mart's, and render unto Jesus that which is Jesus'.
If I were a Christian...
Related Posts (on one page):
- Obama's Broken Window Fallacy
- Christmas and the Broken Window Fallacy
- President Invokes Broken Window Fallacy
Posted by Kip on
14 December 2005
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