A Stitch in Haste

Here are some hasty stitches regarding President Bush's second term:

--Supreme Court vacancies: I'm more concerned with laws than with judges, so I have little to contribute as to who might be potential nominees. However, I do make one prediction: If Chief Justice Rehnquist is the first to leave, then do not be surprised if Bush looks beyond the Court rather than try to nominate Thomas or another Associate Justice. The reason? One confirmation process instead of two. Even a sitting Associate Justice has to be confirmed by the Senate before becoming Chief Justice. So first would come that confirmation, then another confirmation to fill the corresponding Associate Justice position. Why should Bush squander his "capital" that way?

--Social Security: I think Bush will get any modest private account proposal he puts forward, if he meets two preconditions. (1) Assure no cuts for current retirees, and (2) Make any account-based system an opt-in program (i.e., the ignoranti would be able to remain in the current program as-is, and anyone who did not specifically sign up for accounts would remain in the current system). Also, possibly (3) guarantee that private accounts would have a cash-only option (i.e., not requiring people to invest in the stock market). On a side note, let's move quickly on some other easy facets of the "Ownership Society," namely scrapping the incomprehensible "use it or lose it" rule for flexible spending accounts and, while we're at it, raising the limits on such accounts (and on IRA and 401(k) contributions too).

--Tax Reform: Let's begin with first principles -- You can't possibly implement revenue-neutral tax reform for everyone; it can only be done in the aggregate. If you simplify income taxes, some will pay less, some will pay more. Keep that in mind when you hear cries from Democrats of "he's raising taxes on X, Y and Z!" On the other hand, two very quick and easy reforms Bush can implement immediately are scrapping the abominable Alternative Minimum Tax (indexing it would be nice, but abolishing it altogether would be the better course of action), and permanently abolishing the death tax.

--Giuliani for Attorney General? Not going to happen. Not because Rudy says it won't happen, but rather because it would be a disastrous choice, and both Bush and Giuliani know that. Keep in mind that, to liberals, Giuliani was Hitler before Bush was Hitler. Before September 11, Giuliani was a lightning rod for criticism on civil liberties issues, aggressive law enforcement policies, etc. Could you imagine the cries of terror from the Left, including in the Senate, were he nominated to be in charge of enforcing the PATRIOT Act or helping to craft PATRIOT II? Why stir up that liberal hornet nest? On the other hand, should Tom Ridge leave as Director of Homeland Security, I think you might see Giuliani jump at that job. He rose to fame and power as a crime fighter, first as U.S. Attorney and later as Mayor. And there may very well be not a single person on the planet who hates the terrorists more than Giuliani. (Sidebar: If Giuliani wants to run for President or Vice-President in 2008, then he simply must get back into limelight politics somehow. Same for John Edwards. They can't just sit around for four years doing nothing).

I'm off to the LGBT Law Conference, so no blogging for the rest of the day.